Helix: Vaporware or game-changer for cloud-based genomics

A while back, I wrote a 3-part due diligence [1, 2, 3] on the cloud-based genomics space, focusing on the competitive landscape around Seven Bridges Genomics.

Lets discuss the potential impact of Helix…

It’s not supposed to make money from consumers

The most important thing about Helix is that it is playing the long-game. It does not intended to make money from consumers. My best guess at the Helix strategy is about loss-leading bottom-up disruption with lock-in.

Concept

Basically, they will sequence your exome (or genome) at no cost to the consumer and take a cut of all APP revenue (30% Apple standard?). While the vision is for community developed content, they will need to seed the ecosystem with a few tools to both validate the developer API and generate interest: queue the first batch of high-profile ‘applications collaborations.’

I’m not too concerned about the infrastructure side, as Illumina should have already solved the hard cloud-based problems with BaseSpace and the hard laboratory integration/data management problems via HiSeq X deployments. I suspect this know-how will transfer.

Bottom-up disruption

At $500 in sequencing cost and a 30% app cut, consumers would need to average ~$1500 per person on “What colour will our kid’s eyes be?” and “When will I go bald?”…lulz…I think not.

The healthcare market is notoriously difficult to change; but, get consumers asking about Viagra, and the doctors may follow. That’s the idea behind Helix. Acclimatize the consumer to ‘sharing’ their genome for an insight, and hope it trickles into the clinic one “why can’t you GATTACA” question at a time.

Lock-in

Once consumers are locked-in to the platform, the real money begins: approved genetic tests that will be sold directly to institutions. Unfortunately, without the consumer adoption, Helix just wouldn’t have the clout and social license to operate to show hospitals out of the 1950s.

What other platform would be able to offer ‘free’ sequencing and have a database of (hopefully) millions of users to back it up? Not to mention, a large chunk of that ‘free’ sequencing cost will be ploughed right back into Illumina’s core business as instrument and consumable sales. None of the stand-alone cloud-based genomics shops can deliver that sort of synergy to the bottom-line.

The platform will then bifurcate between the non-approved ‘consumer’ apps (virtually free: check the price of any flashlight app) and the approved ‘institutional’ apps (gravy train).

Genius, if it works.

Competing vision to Oxford Nanopore’s Metrichor

Maybe I over estimate Illumina’s baby killing desire, but I also view Helix as a direct ‘vision’ challenge to Oxford Nanopore’s Metrichor.

Will everyone have a sequencer, like every lab has a PCR machine (Metrichor)?

Will you send-off sample for sequencing as a service, like every lab orders oligos (Helix)?

Will sequencing be ‘things’ focused (Metrichor) or human focused, moving up the value chain from novelty –> clinic (Helix)?

Only time will tell, but I like that both visions are beginning to be articulated.

Conclusion

The Helix announcement could completely upend the ecosystem. But, as always beware the hype and remember that execution reigns.